Every agency on the internet has written the “AI Overviews killed SEO” post. Almost none of them mentioned the number that should worry you more.
In Seer Interactive’s study of 3,119 informational queries — 25.1 million organic impressions and 1.1 million paid impressions — organic CTR on queries with an AI Overview fell from 1.76% to 0.61%. That’s the 61% drop everyone quotes.
Paid CTR on those same queries fell from 19.7% to 6.34%. A 68% drop. Paid got hit harder than organic, and it barely made the headlines.
We manage paid search for a living, so that’s the number we had to go answer for. This is what we found, what we changed, and what we deliberately didn’t.
Table of Contents
What actually changed: three surfaces, not one
People use “AI search” to mean one thing. It’s three, and they behave differently:
- AI Overviews — the generated answer block above results. Available in 200+ markets.
- AI Mode — the conversational tab that anticipates follow-up questions. Started as a US English experiment and has been expanding through 2026.
- Ads inside both — the part that changes your media plan.
The third one is the one most SEO coverage skips. If you only optimize for citations, you’re optimizing for half the surface.
Worth grounding yourself first: none of this changes how crawling and indexing actually work. If the pipeline itself is fuzzy, our guide to Googlebot and how search engines work covers the crawl → index → rank mechanics that everything here still sits on top of.
Read the data honestly
The headline numbers are real, but three caveats matter more than the headline:
Branded queries went the other way. Non-branded queries with an AI Overview show roughly a 20% CTR decline. Branded queries with an AI Overview show an 18.7% increase — the only positive line in the dataset. AI Overviews are punishing discovery queries and rewarding demand you already created.
Citation is worth more than ranking now. Brands cited inside an AI Overview earn about 35% more organic clicks and 91% more paid clicks. Being in the answer beats being under it, by a wide margin on the paid side.
The “recovery” isn’t one. Organic CTR on AI Overview queries moved from 1.3% in December 2025 to 2.4% in February 2026. Seer’s own read is that this is leveling off, not recovering. Don’t let anyone sell you a rebound narrative on that chart.
What it did to paid: broad match is now the entry fee
Here’s the uncomfortable structural change. To be eligible to appear in AI Overviews and AI Mode at all, your campaigns generally need to be running Performance Max, AI Max with search term matching, Shopping, or broad match targeting. AI Max left beta in April 2026.
Read that again from a cost-control perspective. The price of admission to the new surface is handing Google more matching latitude than most accounts were giving it. Every advertiser who spent five years tightening match types is being asked to loosen them again.
That trade can be worth making. Google’s own figures put it at roughly 14% more conversions or conversion value at similar CPA/ROAS — though that’s Google internal data on non-retail advertisers, so treat it as a vendor claim, not a finding. Independent early reads are messier: around 18% higher engagement at about 35% higher CPC on AI Mode placements, with ads showing in roughly a quarter of AI Mode results.
Higher engagement at meaningfully higher CPC is not automatically a win. It’s a math problem, and the math is account-specific.
What it means practically: your negative keyword list stops being hygiene and becomes your primary cost control. When you can’t constrain entry with match types anymore, negatives are the lever you have left. This is exactly why we maintain our universal negative keyword list of 800+ terms — it was useful before, and it’s load-bearing now. Pair it with the discipline in our complete guide to avoiding wasted spend on Google Ads.
Your bidding approach needs a second look too. Broader matching plus automated bidding compounds both the upside and the damage; our breakdown of smart bidding strategies covers which strategies tolerate that and which don’t.
What it did to organic: stop optimizing for the blue link
If branded queries are the only ones gaining and citations drive the clicks, the organic job description changed:
- Own your brand SERP. This is now the highest-CTR real estate you have. That means both earning organic sitelinks and running sitelink assets on the paid side so you occupy the whole block.
- Write extractable passages. Direct answer in the first sentence, then the elaboration. Generated answers pull self-contained passages, not buried conclusions.
- Chase citation, not position. Position 3 with a citation now beats position 1 without one.
The strategic budget question underneath all of this hasn’t actually changed shape — it’s just gotten sharper. Our post on SEO vs PPC and which is right for your business still holds; AI search mostly raises the cost of being weak in either one.
The measurement problem nobody's solved
Be honest with yourself about what you can and can’t see right now:
- Search Console doesn’t cleanly separate AI Mode traffic from ordinary search.
- Impressions inflate while clicks fall, so your CTR chart will look like a catastrophe even where nothing is actually wrong.
- Assisted-conversion paths lengthen, because AI search absorbs the research step that used to be a visit.
Before you make a single strategic decision off this, make sure your baseline is trustworthy. Start with how to use Google Search Console properly, confirm your Google Analytics setup is actually correct, and get clear on how Google conversion attribution works. A 60% CTR decline and a broken tag look identical on a dashboard.
What we changed in client accounts
Seven concrete moves, in the order we make them:
- Segment reporting by AI Overview presence. Blended numbers hide everything. If you can’t split it, you can’t manage it.
- Split branded and non-branded budgets properly. Branded is the only line gaining CTR. Fund it accordingly and stop treating it as a rounding error.
- Audit negatives before loosening match types — not after. Once broad match is live on an AI-eligible campaign, you’re paying tuition for every gap.
- Treat AI-surface eligibility as a test, not a migration. Carve out budget, measure incrementality, and keep a controlled comparison campaign running.
- Rewrite top-of-funnel pages into answer-first structure. The informational queries are where the 61% drop lives; that content has to earn citations now or it earns nothing.
- Defend the brand SERP on both sides — organic sitelinks and paid assets together.
- Reset client expectations on CTR benchmarks in writing. Last year’s targets are no longer achievable on affected queries, and the conversation goes much better before the report than after it.
What we're not doing
Because the honest half of the answer matters:
- We’re not pulling budget out of paid search. A 68% CTR drop on informational queries is not the same as a 68% drop on commercial-intent queries, which is where the money actually is.
- We’re not buying “GEO” as a separate service line. Most of what’s being sold as generative engine optimization is technical SEO and brand-building with a new invoice attached.
- We’re not treating Google’s 14% conversion-lift figure as a finding. It’s a vendor claim, and we’ll believe our own incrementality tests over it.
We live, breathe & Dream Traffic
FAQ
Do AI Overviews hurt paid ads or only organic?
Both — and the Seer data shows paid hit harder. Organic CTR fell 61% on AI Overview queries while paid CTR fell 68%.
Can I opt out of AI Overviews?
Not selectively. You can restrict AI training crawlers, but you can’t remove yourself from AI Overviews while staying in normal Google results.
Do I have to use Performance Max to show up in AI surfaces?
No, but you need one of: Performance Max, AI Max with search term matching, Shopping, or broad match targeting. Broad match is the lowest-commitment route in.
Is branded search really up?
On queries that trigger an AI Overview, branded CTR rose about 18.7% — the only positive figure in the study. AI search rewards existing demand.
What’s the single highest-leverage fix?
Get cited. Brands appearing inside AI Overviews see roughly 35% more organic clicks and 91% more paid clicks than those that don’t.
Check out more blog posts:
AI Overviews Cut Paid CTR by 68%. Here’s What Actually Still Works in 2026
